Ethiopia’s ambitious plan to develop its port marks a significant shift in its geopolitical and economic strategy. This initiative seeks to reduce Ethiopia’s dependency on neighboring countries (i.e., Djibouti) for maritime access, presenting opportunities and challenges. As Ethiopia embarks on this plan, it faces numerous points of view that align with this decision process in terms of geopolitical challenges within East Africa, with neighboring countries such as Somalia in particular. Following the signing of the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Somalia expressed strong disapproval of the agreement and directly accused Ethiopia of making a serious mistake and posing a threat by allegedly undermining the sovereignty of Somalia. Nevertheless, despite the Solamian blams, Ethiopia strongly defends its position by expressing that this move is rising to strengthen its economic growth and facilitating the genuine strategy to access ports for commercial issues which is very crucial to its economic growth and development associated with the huge increase of its population align with import and export demand and supply, not to threat any neighboring countries accordingly.
“The agreement paves the way to allow Ethiopia to have commercial marine operations in the region by giving it access to a leased military base on the Red Sea, Abiy’s national security adviser, Redwan Hussien, said.”[1]
As the results of the MoU deal effects, Somaliland provides a port to Ethiopia in “exchange for 20km (12 miles) sea access for the Ethiopian naval forces, leased for 50 years periods to", an official report. “Somaliland would also receive a stake in state-owned Ethiopian Airlines,” accordingly. Similarly, this new project assists in creating and enhancing new job opportunities and infrastructure for both countries to help the economy revive in advance.
To find a resolution for Ethio-Somalia's problems and to reduce the tension between both countries, Ethiopia has reached out to Turkey to mediate these issues. Ankara also accepted the offer positively and held two two-term successful discussions whereas, the third discussion will also be planned for Sep 17, 2024.
1. Strategic Significance of an Independent Port
Ethiopia’s reliance on Djibouti for nearly all its seaborne trade highlights its vulnerability to disruptions in port operations aligned with Economic Autonomy. Developing its port would provide Ethiopia with greater control over its trade routes and reduce its economic dependency. This move could enhance Ethiopia’s trade efficiency, foster economic growth, and improve its strategic leverage in regional affairs. Consequently, Ethiopia’s economic stability is closely tied to its access to its own ports, which is primarily in Djibouti in particular. Crucially, the increase in the country's population, demand and supply imbalance, and disruptions or inefficiencies in port operations impact Ethiopia’s imports and exports, making it highly vulnerable to regional conflicts and diplomatic disputes. Thus, this dependency causes Ethiopia to seek more stronger economy on its side and to secure more stable and efficient port access, while it puts more pressure on regional tensions on the other side.
Another strategic significance is associated with infrastructure and investment. Building a new port requires significant infrastructure development and investment. Ethiopia’s pursuit of this goal will involve substantial financial resources, technological expertise, and logistical planning. Successful implementation could result in a major economic asset, but the project’s cost and complexity pose considerable risks.
2. Regional Geopolitical Challenges
Ethiopia’s efforts to secure a port could heighten tensions with neighboring countries. For instance, disputes with Somalia over coastal regions may complicate Ethiopia’s port development plans. Additionally, Djibouti, which has been a key partner in Ethiopia’s trade, might view Ethiopia’s new port as a challenge to its economic interests, potentially straining bilateral relations.
“..., Ethiopia has relied upon Djibouti’s port as its main trade conduit, however, it annually pays around 1.8 billion dollars in port fees to Djibouti as it manages 95% of trade from Ethiopia which accounts for 76% of its GDP... based on this MoU agreements, the Ethiopian government considers that if Ethiopia gains access to the Red Sea through this deal it might help it to diversify its trade routes, reducing its reliance on Djibouti, making its trade more resilient and thereby enhancing its economic stability. This would also help Ethiopia to seek stronger ties with the Red Sea States, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”[2]
The Horn of Africa has been marked and relied on significant geopolitical rivalries and strategic competition for decades. Eritrea, with its own strategic ports in Massawa and Assab, could perceive Ethiopia’s port initiative as a direct competitor. It also supposed that Eritrea’s unpredictable foreign policy, military activities, and involvement in regional conflicts may often exacerbate existing tensions, impacting the broader security environment in the Horn of Africa, including its strained relations with Ethiopia and its influence in neighboring countries, contributing to regional instability. This dynamic could exacerbate regional rivalries, impacting security and diplomatic relations. Similarly, Kenya, with its strategic location and port at Mombasa, might be affected by changes in regional trade patterns and power balances.
In the contemporary situation, Egypt’s engagement with Somalia through military support and training introduces new dynamics into the region. While Egypt aims to stabilize Somalia, its actions could be perceived as an external intervention, potentially upsetting the balance of power and heightening tensions with other regional actors who may view this as a threat to their interests. Particularly, experts view the tension between Ethio-Egypt related to the Nile case as a case that made the Eypyt-Somalia agreement in different positions which is planned to intensify Ethio-Somalia problems and Egypt planned to benefit from such conflict. Furthermore, Egypt government mention that the deal of Ethio-Somaliland MoU agreement was a direct violation of Somalia's sovereignty.
3. Economic and Security Dimensions
An independent port would allow Ethiopia to diversify its trade routes and potentially lower transportation costs for economic benefits and risk-minimizing effects. However, the financial burden of port development, combined with the risk of political and security challenges, could affect the anticipated economic outcomes. Additionally, it is supposed that the new port could alter regional trade flows, impacting neighboring economies and potentially leading to economic interaction. On the other hand, the establishment of a new port could have significant security implications. Ethiopia may need to enhance its military and security bases in coastal regions to protect its port facilities, which could heighten regional tensions. Increased security measures might provoke responses from neighboring countries or non-state actors, impacting regional stability.
Regional organizations such as the AU, Arab League, and IGAD have expressed their concern about the dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia and its impact on Horn of Africa security and regional stability.
4. Diplomatic and Strategic Repercussions
Ethiopia’s sound strategic steps to develop its port could lead to shifts in diplomatic alliances and regional partnerships massively. It may seek new alliances or face opponents from neighboring countries or outside who are worried about the ramifications of Ethiopia becoming more autonomous. The project could reshape regional diplomatic dynamics and influence Ethiopia’s relationships with both traditional partners and emerging regional players. As a result, the development of Ethiopia’s port could impact regional integration efforts. On one hand, it might drive initiatives for enhanced regional cooperation and infrastructure development. Conversely, if perceived as undermining existing regional agreements or interests, it could hinder collaborative efforts. This could result in regional cooperation and integration being affected by the project. A more mutual benefit and win-win strategy is required for regional actors.
For instance, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over Nile River water rights is a critical issue with far-reaching consequences. The dam, essential for Ethiopia’s development, while Egypt’s see it as a threat to water supply fro them, leading to heightened diplomatic and sometimes military tensions. This dispute impacts not only Ethiopia and Egypt but also regional stability and cooperation. East African regional actors should gain a positive lesson from this project instead of being pessimistic.
Nevertheless, the involvement of international and regional actors adds further complexity to the regional geopolitical situation. External interventions, whether through diplomatic support, military assistance, or economic aid, can either mitigate or intensify regional conflicts. These external influences shape the strategies and responses of the primary actors involved, affecting the overall stability of the Horn of Africa.
Conclusion
Ethiopia’s pursuit of an independent port represents a transformative power and promising in its socio-economic and geopolitical strategy. Consequently, these promises and potentials give impactful powerhouses to increase economic autonomy and sound strategies to enhance benefits on the scenario from the grassroots. It also introduces significant challenges and risks within the complex geopolitical landscape with East Africa and its neighboring on the other side. This means that balancing national interests with regional stability will require careful negotiation, strategic foresight, and diplomatic engagement to navigate the evolving dynamics in the Horn of Africa’s regional stability.
Reference
[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/1/ethiopia-signs-agreement-to-use-somalilands-red-sea-port
[2] Dr. Gauri Narain Mathur, The Somaliland-Ethiopia Deal: Impact and Implications, Indian Council of WorldsAffiars; https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=10714&lid=6810 data extracted [03.08.2024]
Comments